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    Wednesday, 26 April 2017

    Predictions for 2018 elections

    Predictions for Zimbabwe's 2018 political Royal Rumble outcome
    By Charles Kungwengwe

    Welcome to the Royal Rumble  2018  ,last- man -standing  match ,that is imminent. Attention –grabbing  names  on the list are those of the Dead Man (Undertaker),the Ultimate Warrior ,the Legion Of Doom , Bret –Heart, Sting ,Brock Lesnar, John Cena  ,Triple H , Stone Gold  and Goldberg ,all of whom are  among some of  the greatest grapplers of all time.
    It is a Match between the Bad (heels) and Good (faces) Guys. Watch out for a surprising name on the List:
    And the Hulkster is also set to feature in the Main event .The Title is on Line and he is in a mood to reassert his title credentials as the Greatest Wrestler in the History of the Sport. Yes Hogan will be there, it has been confirmed --Not the dark mustached N.W.O 'Villainous hero', but the white and Yellow Immortal Hulk Hogan  ,we have always known and adored ,will be in tights! ---- SEEMS ITS A MATCH THAT IS DESTINED TO END HULK-AMAN-IAC----
    Talking about Hogan and Taker(traditional arch-rivals ), I am reminded of Wrestle mania 12 when the 2 wrestled in an I Quit Match. And everyone who knows the wrestling genius of these two greats and remembering their unending feuds ,will certainly agree with this writer that their oncoming match has all the ingredients of the greatest bout of all time. No doubt, Taker will unleash his choke-slam and then Tombstone finishing style on the Hulkster. While no-one disputes the fact that  the Old man has all the experience ,it remains to be seen whether or not, given his advanced age, he  will he be able to kick-out of Taker 's grip? .Some believe Hogan will be parceled or rolled into the Dead-Man 's casket awaiting the last nail to be inserted onto  the coffin before being  delivered to Taker 's ring. Others ,INCLUDING THIS WRITER  HIMSELF ,contend that the old-man is far from being a spent –force. Accordingly , he will rip open his T-Shirt ,start Hulking up , seemingly impervious to attacks and in obvious  disdain of Taker 's effort (ready for the leg drop ) ,while the latter will jump out of the ring and take to heels to save  his dear life. Please never try this at home, at school or anywhere else-------!
    Come –on reader-forget about the literal Wrestling!.I am referring to the literary one!, a brutal blood bathing ballot battle story that will soon unravel. These are    the Zimbabwean elections set for 2018 in which the young old-man ,not Hogan, this time  around , but Mugabe , and Tsvangirai are set to lock horns again !.As we wait with bated breaths  and try to predict  the possible outcome of the polls  we also revisit the question : Who is the next political Messiah in Zimbabwe?(check the Financial Gazette 20- 01-17 for the flashback), a term that has biblical origins and means the Anointed One or  Deliverer.And it is against this background that Jesus Christ is referred to as such.
    If current indications are anything to come by , we might  again see Uncle Bob  (His Excellency )and Tsvangirai (Taker)  in tights wrestling again  (in the Final Survivors' Match) in the 50 meter steel political cage ring in 2018 (Remember the wrestling allegory \analogue\ 'parable' ).Joyce(Brock Lesnar) will also be right inside the ring –not in Mugabe 's corner ,this time around  ,but as Tsvangirai 's tug-team partner, while  in this tragi-comedy Mugabe pairs with Mnangagwa(Cena). This encounter  is surely set to be   the most anticipated political bout in living memory and voter apathy is therefore unthinkable. But   God seems to favor ZANU PF given that we normally receive down-pours whenever elections are at hand. And when people have had  bumper harvests they rarely have the leisure to venture into politics . This might create an anti climax: voter apathy .Still on that note , apart from the state's  monopoly of the media ,the Constitution is still tilted in favor of Bob ,thereby further broadening his prospects of winning the Match. The  Territorial (Winner Takes All) electoral system  enshrined in our Constitution , as opposed to the Proportional one ,for example ,is subject to gerrymandering during the delimitation exercise. Please, lets not talk about media control now!
    Of course ,the Hogan team will win But  the question is :will he ,as the team leader ,be prepared to give Cena the green-light to take the torch or button and become the new leader or he feels the budding 'Hulkster' is still ill-prepared to face challenges from seasoned , but cruel opponents like Taker ,opponents who rarely respect the rules of the Game?.

    Each period has had its own problems and ,as such , people with different  messianic traits.Forexample ,in 1980 his Excellency(the black Jesus),together with others ,saved the country from the shekels of colonialism. But who is the Ultimate Messiah or last man standing?.
    The term 'Messiah' gives the impression that something  is  amiss . These problems are socio-economic, cultural ,political and legal. 
    A.      Political:
    Ever since the then PF ZAPU  was swallowed by ZANU PF ,the country had a problem of Single-party-ism ,till  1990- when the late Tekere found ZUM (but opposition  came in earnest in 1999 when the MDC was found).Related to  this  was \is  the problem of cult leaders and overdue political incumbency .Possible causes  of these twin evils are the charismatic nature of our leaders ,in part , and  the use of dubious means such as repression. In this regard both Tekere and Tsvangirai could be portrayed as Messiahs of multi-party democracy. However ,Contrary to the view that   cdeTekere was a product of ZANU PF political vomit, some hold that  the late politician never left the party but was used  or remote-controlled  by the sitting regime to confuse viable political parties and also give the impression that there was multi-party democracy in the country since the Breton Woods Institutions made political pluralism a prerequisite for the so-called aid.This was a direct response to the drive towards Globalization.
    But we already know these two champions,Tsvangison and Two-boy,'s own weaknesses of dictatorial tendencies; maybe it is because they grew up in this political system. It seems it is a deep-seated  culture of Zimbabwe for in other non political fields  leaders also overstay at the helm as we have seen in  such fraternities  as soccer ,where Mabika Charles has been the leading commentator since time immemorial. But  that is far from being his most grievous fault ;Tsvangirai has already  unfortunately been portrayed as a  political condom of or stooge of the West.
    The term 'factionalism' is a catchy-word in Zimbabwean politics: This disease has found expression in various forms:ethnicity: and some people are hoping that  Ngwena will be a  Karanga Messiah toregister victory for the karangas( who have a numerical advantage but never had the chance to  lead the country in modern politics) by succeeding the incumbent; a gulf between the  Young Turks and Old Guard, Academics and the Semi-Literate,Civilians  and those in the Military.This is a characteristic feature that is all-pervasive in all local political parties.Factionalism saw Mujuru free-falling from the ruling party  from grace to grass and from a hero(ine) to a zero. It is also for the same reason that we have  recently seen heads rolling in her own party as well. 
    Another local disease is civil and political strife. This problem can be attributed to  western sponsored opposition ,through globalization ; ethnic animosities and ripple effects of economic misfortunes: Cdes Nkomo and Mugabe  ended this ethnic cleansing  in 1987 when they signed  the Historic  Unity Accord and in this regard they are messiahs.
    The militarization of politics and the politicization of the military is another tragedy that has befallen Zimbabwe. And questions begging for an answer are:  are we ever going to have a civilian leader and up to when should the army ,that is meant to be non-partisan ,continue to determine politics.
    It is indeed a sad reality that  in Zimbabwe  the army determines local politics and all service chiefs stated unequivocally ,just before the 2000 ,2008 and 2013 elections, that they would never salute a President who does not have liberation war credentials .Impliedly , elections are a mere waste of time and resources and at a time when cash is hard to come by. Tsvangirai 's greatest undoing is that he does not hail from the Military!(But soldiers have  militant and commandist tendencies). And the country is also used to Plato 's Philosopher King or Academic leader. Against that background , would Tsvangirai  emerge the long awaited civilian political Messiah in this regard?
    Though colonialism was dislodged, its ghost continued looming in the average  Zimbabwean's mental Landscape and this is neo-colonialism.Both  Jonathan Moyo and  the late Boder Gezi proved  messiahsin this area, by exorcising this demon ,but we overstepped the mark and brought about reverse racism which targeted Whites. And this amounts toan anti-climax or counter revolution  in that this trend has gone against the ideals of Chimurenga – no to racism .
    B. Economic :
    Yes 1980 saw the attainment of political independence but ,sadly , 90 % of the virgin ,strategic and  economically viable  potions of the economy  still remained in the hands of the whites ,yet they  constituted a mere 10% of the population .There was therefore an aggressive  move  towards the indigenization of the means of production. Due to the Lancaster House Constitutional  restrictions which were screwed in favor of the whites, independence was felt like warm water in the mouths of the thirsty people. The Mugabe regime enacted the Land Acquisition Act 20:20 , an Act that empowered the government to compulsorily acquire the land without compensating the Whites .This was in line with  the ZANU PF Gospel' the land is the economy and the economy is the land ' and his Excellency 's slogan 'political power without economic means is hollow and deceptive'.
    The above Act ,which allowed massive farm\land invasions , in turn  engendered sabotage on the part of the Whites .Business in agriculture ground to a  halt, due to  this sabotage and  choice of wrong beneficiaries for the farms . This has  also adversely affected industrial output. The erosive ,devastating  nature and effects of sanctions worsened the situation as the economy was brought to its knees.No doubt ,Uncle Bob would have emerged a hero had it not been that the program  was ZANUrised , war-veterised and used as a political gimmick on a vote-catching election campaign trail.The motive of the fast-trekked Land Reform  was also bad as the exercise was meant to be a punitive measure against the Whites for supporting the  then upcoming opposition ,MDC.
    B.      socio-cultural:
    On the Socio-Cultural  front,moral  decadence is the order of the daydue to survival tactics by starving people . Coupled with this is the  divorce –related disintegration  of families due to economic problems,mass exodus into the Diaspora and  corruption has  now been perfected into an art  .In fact crime is now  the order of the day. Maybe , in addition to Jonathan Moyo 's razor-sharp intelligence ,we need someone with the economic acumen –someone like Simba Makoni.But ,sadly ,he is just an academic and not practical politician!
    Zimbabwe, just like anywhere else in the world ,is a highly patriarchal society : in all spheres of life men have always  ruled to the total exclusion of women ,the latter of whom were and are still partly marginalized. Both Amai Mujuru and the First Lady ,Grace Mugabe , have set a trend and pace by overturning the previous status-quo. Mujuru happened to be one of the few ladies in the World who was within the Presidium while pointers in some quarters are that Graca might also be  the Messiah for her various acts of charity ,which have found their way into the hearts and minds of many, seem to be an answer to James 's concern---Acts\works , and not just empty rhetoric of faith, must justify one's claims (James 2:14-26). Mujuru has formed her own political party and maybe at the back of her mind ,the honorable lady  wishes to convince ZANU PF , just like Peter did say  to his contemporary Jews (Acts 4:11), that the very stone which was rejected by the  Uncle Bob builder  will become the head of the national political corner\building!.Perhaps  she is more than determined to prove a point by (personally pinning down opponents) winning elections in which the President is directly elected by the people (Presidential System of Democracy ,as in Hollywood) and not Parliamentary Systems ( as is the case  in the U.K,Botswana and South Africa ), where the Incumbent is elected by Parliament. Those are Messianic attributes.
    To her credit, the former freedom fighter knows all the poly- tricks of ZANU PF politics for she was groomed by none other than President Mugabe himself. Before the rise to stardom of the First Lady, Grace Mugabe, she was banking on the support of all women and women constitute the majority in Zimbabwe. Besides being a war veteran herself, sheis widow to the late military supremo, Solomon Mujuru(pseudonymed Rex Nhongo )and these facts further fatten her c.v and increase her ratings.   While no one can deny the fact that Mujuru has avoided Tsvangirai 's handicap by further broadening the frontiers of her knowledge(she is now an academic therapist) - we should not think-away the fact that Zimbabwe is still a highly patriarchal society! And women rarely vote for each other. Women are their own worst enemies. Given the patriarchal nature of our societies will Mujuru  ever attain the lofty status like the one that she achieved during her heydays days in Zanu Pf?  Time will tell.
     This factor alone thus narrows her way to the state house. Another issue is that most people, including  even the most  gullible ,now know the poly-tricks of ZANU PF politics (of creating 'opposition parties') and ,therefore , hardly trust Mujuru. She was one of the closest comrades to his Excellency for more than 30 years and All of a sudden, in her own view, her mentor is now bad. How ironic!.Lest you were not aware, this political Messiah was booted out of ZANU PF andthereafter vowed to stick to the party through thick and thin. Why that back-somersault now? Outright opportunism, motivated by the sheer desire to preserve herself? Maybe, on the other hand, shehas finally come to her own senses and, if so, let us assign a thief to catch another thief. Or, has she, just like the biblical Saul\Paul of Tarsus (Acts 9:1 ff), been on her way to Damascus where she has  seen the light? We might see something like scales falling from her eyes.kkk.  Let us give her the benefit of the doubt.
    C.      legal:
    Before 2013 the Country had a Constitutional Crisis as we relied on the Allochthonous Lancaster House Constitution ,a document that was lop-sided in fervor of the former Colonizers. This Constitution was amended time without number by the Ruling Party to further entrench the political muscle of the Incumbent.All  laws were not only highly partisan but  tilted in fervor of the Ruling Party. We now currently boast of an Autochtonous \Home-grown  and one of the best constitutions in the world , with a justiciable bill of rights: civil and political,socio-economic ,cultural and group rights.The General populace proved self –redeemers. And in that respect  ,all Zimbabweans  played  a  crucial role.

    Before concluding , we need to advise Mujuru and Tsvangirai  to  join hands and complement each other 's  efforts : the  former lacks the charisma ,eloquence, experience and bravery which the latter is heavily armed with while the latter is devoid of a military background  and high education ,traits which Mujuru boasts of.
    Similarly ,if Ngwena and Grace  do not join hands  both Mujuru  and Tsvangirai may exploit this ZANU PF polarization to their advantage in the 2018 elections.
    A concluding remark is that Yes there is a  crisis in the country but the electorate must be mindful of the fact that these conditions are ideal for opportunists who claim to be messiahs. These are some of the signs of the times and Jesus remarked' –many will come claiming to be me ---to the extent of deceiving many---'(Matthew 24: 5). Unfortunately, due the desperation that grips the country, most people are being wooed into blindly following anyone.Nothing short of another  Lenin who would emerge and offer 'land ,peace ,bread and butter' should be taken seriously by the populace.//Opinion

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